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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Long: backwardation and inventory drawdown, 97.83 invalidation | 2026-10-23

We are long WTI crude (CL=F, executing CME December CLZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below 97.823, the NEXT S1 pivot derived from the 2026-10-22 high/low/close. The call rests on three pillars. First, the physical balance is tightening: EIA crude stocks at 412,517 kb (2026-10-16) sit 3.3% below the 5-year same-week average after a 4-week cumulative draw of 13,881 kb, gasoline is 5.0% below, and distillate 9.0% below, with refinery utilization at 93.4%. Second, the term structure confirms prompt tightness — M1-M2 backwardation of 1.69 (1.77%) with a 21.24% roll yield — while the 3:2:1 crack at 58.89 USD/bbl (2026-10-22) sits at the 86.11% 1-year percentile, sustaining refinery demand for crude. Third, positioning is not crowded: managed-money net length is only 2.14% of open interest (2026-10-13), a 10.91% 3-year crowding percentile, so the rally is not a crowded trade. Price settled at 99.1 (2026-10-22), up 2.01% on the day and 4.75% over 20 sessions, mid-range within the 86.86–110.48 20-day channel. The main risk is realized volatility: RV20 at 37.7% against OVX at 55.64 means options pay up for event risk, and seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -3.46%). A daily close below 97.823 invalidates; above 100.27 opens 101.45.