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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

FEF=F Deep Dive | Bearish — Momentum Breakdown Targets 89.52 | 2026-10-23

We are bearish on FEF=F (continuous contract, SGX daily settlement) and stay short unless price reclaims the next-session pivot at 90.02 on a daily settlement basis. The contract settled at 89.95 [settle 2026-10-22], down 0.77% on the day and 5.96% over 20 sessions, sitting exactly on the bottom of its 20-day range ex-today at 89.7–95.8 with no reversal pattern in the last five settled bars. ATR14 of 0.69 (0.77% of price) and RV20 of 9.6% confirm a low-volatility grind lower, not a panic; the trend is orderly and intact. Fundamentally, the cross-asset backdrop is unambiguously risk-off for the complex: the oil-gold ratio sits at 0.0245, a 99.21% 1-year percentile, while the copper-gold ratio at 1.58 holds a 94.84% 1-year percentile — both extreme-rich industrial-to-precious configurations that historically coincide with soft physical offtake, and the 3:2:1 crack at $58.52/bbl [2026-10-22] marks a still-fat downstream margin that keeps run rates high and product supply abundant. Implied vol structures confirm the move: OVX at 55.64 (1Y percentile 58%) is elevated against a 9.6% realized reading on the continuous contract, meaning options are paying up for downside event risk into the 10-31 manufacturing PMI. Invalidation is a daily settle above 90.02 (pivot P); a break below 89.52 (S2) targets 89.2, roughly 0.5 ATR beyond.