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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Gold (AU2612) In-Depth Report | Bearish Bias: 20-Day Low Broken, Crowded Longs Retreat | 2026-10-23

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Shanghai Gold AU2612 [10-22 settlement] 886.38 yuan/gram, close 881.46 has broken below the prior 20-day low of 881.82, cumulative -6.28% over 20 days, at the 7.3% percentile of the 20-day channel, with the night session probing further down to 869.22. On drivers, COMEX gold [10-22 settlement] 4060.4 USD/ounce fell -2.16% in a single day, and the international sell-off is transmitted to China as the international-vs-China premium rose from -0.37% to +1.19%. On structure, COT managed-money net positions have been cut for four consecutive weeks while crowding remains at the 90th percentile, so overhead selling pressure is not exhausted; SHFE top-20 seats hold a net long of 160,483 lots but narrowed by 6,229 lots versus the prior day. GVZ implied volatility of 24.15 is above RV20's 19.1%, with options pricing in event risk. Invalidation condition: daily close back above pivot P 883.46 and a break of R1 891.08.