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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-22 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Breaking Below 20-Day Low on Rising Open Interest | 2026-10-23

Directional conclusion: bearish. Iron ore I2701 settled at 671 yuan/ton on [10-22 settlement], down 1.62% intraday, with a cumulative 20-day decline of 5.64%; the price has fallen to the 8.1st percentile of the 20-day range of 664.5–720, approaching the 20-day low of 664.
5. On the drivers, the main contract fell on rising open interest with active short entries; the top 20 seats held a net short of 36,965 lots. Technically, the next pivot P is 671.17, with the settlement price trading below it, and S1 at 662.33. On fundamentals, social inventories rose 2.7% month-on-month in early October, while inventories at key steel enterprises fell 8.4% month-on-month in late September; downstream destocking and rising port arrivals form a signal of temporary supply loosening. Internationally, SGX iron ore settled at 89.95 USD/ton on [10-22 settlement], down 5.96% over 20 days, with an international-to-China premium of +7.22%. Invalidation conditions: a daily close firmly above 677.83 (R1), or a macro event (10-31 manufacturing PMI) significantly exceeding expectations.