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データ基準日: 2026-10-22 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bullish breakout, backwardation confirms prompt tightness | 2026-10-24

Bullish Brent (BZ=F, mapped to ICE Brent December 2026 / BZZ26.NYM): the [settle 2026-10-22] 113.17 close broke above the prior 20-day high of 111.97, and the Asia 2026-10-24 05:00 print at 116.91 (+3.3% vs settle) extends the move. Invalidation is a daily settle back below the NEXT pivot at 112.
13. Three pillars support the call. First, inventories are tightening materially: EIA crude stocks of 412,517 kb (2026-10-16, w/w -3,060) are -3.3% vs the 5-year same-week average, with distillates -9.0% on the same basis. Second, term structure confirms genuine prompt tightness rather than speculative premium: M1-M2 backwardation stands at 4.51 (4.15%) with a roll yield of 49.81%, a meaningful tailwind for longs. Third, momentum is strong but not exhausted — 5D +6.84% and 20D +12.92% [settle basis], ATR14 of 3.92 (3.46% of price) defines the risk band, and RV20 of 32.4% remains below ^OVX at 60.02 (1Y percentile 70%), showing options markets are pricing event risk consistent with further upside. The 3:2:1 crack at $56.26/bbl [2026-10-23] confirms healthy downstream demand. Risks: the 20-day channel position at 98.3% is extended, and seasonality is a headwind (mean -1.92% over the next 20 sessions).