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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis | Bearish: Position-Trimming Rebound Nears Channel Upper Edge | 2026-10-24

Direction: Bearish. I2701 [10-23 settlement] 671 yuan, intraday 675 yuan remains at the 18.9% position of the lower edge of the 20-day channel of 664.5–720 yuan; the 20-day decline of -5% in the medium-term downtrend remains unchanged; the last closed weekly bar [10-12 to 10-16] closed at 672.5 yuan, down -1.47% on the week. The rebound is short-covering in nature: main positions -23,051 lots, top 20 seats net short 35,300 lots, with price gains accompanied by position contraction. Fundamentals are bearish: in early October, steel social inventory rose +2.7% (+25,000 tonnes) month-on-month, a signal of restocking at the end of the peak season, and the domestic-foreign premium is at a high level of +7.77%, meaning the import suppression logic remains in place. This is consistent with the daily report's direction. Direction failure condition: daily close breaks above 686.5 yuan (above the 10-19 high and the next pivot R1).