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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Neutral — LME Stock Surge Offsets SHFE Draw, Range 6.31–6.63 | 2026-10-24

Neutral on COMEX copper (HGZ26.CMX); invalidation on a daily settle below 6.3125 (NEXT S2) or above 6.6255 (NEXT R2). The market is caught between a soft demand-side tape and a genuinely split inventory picture: LME warehouse stocks jumped +27,675 MT (+11.28%) to 272,950 MT as of 2026-10-22, a 20-report build of +21,775 MT, while SHFE warrants collapsed -19.88% d/d to 19,058 MT as of 2026-10-23, a 20-report draw of -12,342 MT. ICSG reported a 132 kt refined surplus for August 2026, reinforcing the bearish fundamental anchor, but the western-exchange build versus the Chinese draw prevents a clean directional short. Price settled 6.5075 [settle 2026-10-23], +1.71% on the day yet -1% over 5 sessions and -2.81% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 0.1333 (2.05% of price) and RV20 at 18.1%. Managed-money net length fell to 61,058 contracts as of 2026-10-13 (COT crowding 60.4, mid-range), showing a moderately positioned market with no extreme. The copper/gold ratio at 1.62 sits at a 1Y percentile of 100%, flagging macro-rich copper versus gold, a pro-growth pricing posture that the surplus fundamentals do not support. With the 10Y at 4.99% and DXY at 101.75, and no Asia print captured for this issue, the desk stays neutral; trade the 6.3125–6.6255 range via NEXT pivots (P 6.469).