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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, No Stabilization Signal | 2026-10-24

Bearish NG=F (front-month NGZ26.NYM). The 10-23 settle of 2.64 broke the prior 20-day low of 2.726 and closed the session below NEXT S1 at 2.576's resistance-turned-support zone; we stay short unless price reclaims and settles above 2.684 (NEXT pivot). Three reasons: (1) momentum is one-directional — five consecutive lower daily settles from 3.058 (10-19) to 2.64 (10-23), a 15.28% five-day collapse with ATR14 at 0.1537 (5.82% of price) showing range expansion, not contraction; (2) the term structure is in deep contango (M1-M2 -11.41%, roll yield -136.88%), meaning spot is heavily discounted to deferred months — a classic loose-cash-market signature that penalizes prompt holders and reflects ample nearby supply; (3) seasonality is no offset here: the +10.37% mean 20-session seasonal tail is context-only with a small sample and a -18.8% worst case (2021), and it has clearly not arrested the current decline. Managed-money net length remains negative (-126,481 as of 10-13) with crowding at only the 37.72 3-year percentile — shorts are not yet a crowded trade, leaving room for further downside before a squeeze risk emerges. Invalidation is a daily settle above 2.684; a break below 2.576 targets 2.512 (NEXT S2).