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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Momentum and Flows Confirm Downtrend | 2026-10-24

Bearish. The 53.949 settle [2026-10-23] broke the prior 20-day low of 54.53, confirming the downtrend; invalidation requires a daily settle above the NEXT pivot P at 53.94 with R1 at 54.804 reclaimed. Three factors drive the call: (1) price has fallen 16.75% over 20 sessions with ATR14 at 2.076 (3.85% of price) and RV20 at 37.3%, meaning downside is being delivered in high-volatility waves rather than orderly drift; (2) managed-money net length has fallen for four consecutive COT reports — from 13,309 contracts on 2026-09-22 to 5,619 on 2026-10-13 — showing systematic de-risking, not a single-week flush; (3) the gold/silver ratio at 74.29 [2026-10-23] sits at a 1-year percentile of 90.08%, confirming silver is lagging gold on the decline rather than leading a recovery. The 52-week range is 45.845–121.3, so there is room to fall before reaching the cycle low. Seasonality is mildly negative (mean -1.91% over the next 20 sessions, up only 5 of 15 years). With the 20-day channel now pointing lower and positioning still not washed out (crowding percentile 33.74), the path of least resistance remains down; S1 at 53.084 and S2 at 52.22 are the near-term supports to monitor.