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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish breakdown toward 450 — momentum, contango and weak demand | 2026-10-24

We stay SHORT corn (ZCZ26.CBT) this session; the call is invalidated only on a daily settle above the NEXT pivot R1 at 460.42, which would mark the first close above prior-session resistance since the 20-day breakdown began. Three reasons: (1) price has settled at 456 [settle 2026-10-23], down 13.68% over 20 sessions and sitting at the bottom of the 20-day range 453.5–529 (ex-today), with every one of the last five settled bars closing lower than the prior bar's high — a textbook series of lower highs and lower lows; (2) the term structure is in contango at M1-M2 -13.75 (-2.9%) with a roll yield of -11.6%, so passive longs pay to hold and there is no carry-based bid to absorb the momentum selling; (3) realized volatility at 22.6% with ATR14 of 10.14 (2.22% of price) means the down-trend is accelerating, not exhausting — a 20-day drawdown of 12.33% and a 30-day Sharpe of -5.61 confirm persistent, risk-adjusted weakness rather than a dip being bought. Fundamentals offer no offset: the cross-asset block shows the copper/gold ratio at a 1Y percentile of 100% alongside an oil/gold ratio at a 1Y percentile of 100%, a pro-growth/risk-on macro backdrop that historically works against defensive grain demand, while the 3:2:1 crack spread at $56.26/bbl [2026-10-23] signals no corn-ethanol margin impulse. With no Asia print available for this issue, we anchor on the 10-23 settlement and the NEXT pivot ladder (P 457.83, S1 453.42, S2 450.83).