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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Momentum Breakdown Targets 618.67 | 2026-10-24

Bearish ZW=F (December 2026 CBOT wheat, ZWZ26.CBT). The settle at 625 [settle 2026-10-23] sits just 0.8% above the 20-day low of 621 and 11.4% below the 20-day high of 707, with 5D -5.37% and 20D -11.13% confirming an aggressive, uninterrupted downtrend. The grain has closed lower in each of the last five settled sessions (655.25 → 643.25 → 628.25 → 624.75 → 625), and the last completed weekly bar closed at 660.5, -1.56% w/w, with the current unfinished week last at 625 (-5.37%). ATR14 of 15.29 (2.45% of price) and RV20 of 20.8% show elevated but orderly risk, while the M1-M2 contango of -13 (-2.04%) reflects a well-supplied cash market carrying a negative roll yield of -8.15% for longs. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -1.54%, median -3.03%, up only 4 of 15 years). No Asia intraday print was captured for this issue. The call is bearish while price holds below next-session pivot 626.67; invalidation is a daily settle above 634.67 (NEXT R2).