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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bullish breakout confirmed — backwardation and draws argue for 120.31 | 2026-10-25

Brent front-month BZ=F is bullish; the [settle 2026-10-23] 116.72 print broke above the prior 20-day high of 113.49 and we stay long unless a daily settle breaks back below the next-session S1 of 113.82. Three pillars support the call: (1) momentum — 1D +3.14%, 5D +6.24%, 20D +19.79% with the settle at 96.9% of the 20-day range, and the 10-23 bar's 117.41 high matching the 52-week high; (2) a genuinely tight physical balance — EIA crude stocks at 412,517 kb (2026-10-16) are -3.3% vs the 5-year same-week average after a 4-week cumulative draw of -13,881 kb, with gasoline -5.0% and distillate -9.0% vs their 5-year averages, while refinery utilization runs at 93.4%; (3) term structure agrees — M1-M2 backwardation of 5.02 (4.49%) with a 53.93% roll yield is classic prompt tightness, not speculative premium. The main caveat is stretched short-term positioning and elevated volatility: ATR14 is 3.98 (3.41% of price) and RV20 is 30.9%, while ^OVX at 60.02 (1Y percentile 70%) shows options paying up for event risk. Seasonality is a headwind (next 20 sessions, mean -2.66%, up only 5 of 15 years), so size for a 3.98 ATR daily range; a daily settle below 113.82 invalidates the breakout and flips the view to neutral.