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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Managed-Money Exit Not Done | 2026-10-25

We stay SHORT COMEX December gold (GCZ26). The 10-23 settle of 4007.9 broke below the prior 20-day low of 4036.8 (ex-today basis) and closed the session below NEXT pivot support S1 3981.27's gravitational zone, confirming the down-leg from the 4315.6 20-day high. The bearish call is driven by three forces: (1) trend and momentum — 5D -4.14% and 20D -7.25% (settle basis), with ATR14 at 71.89 (1.79% of price) showing expanding ranges to the downside; (2) positioning — managed-money net length has fallen for four consecutive COT weeks (120,318 → 104,206 contracts) yet the crowding percentile remains 89.17, meaning the de-risking has far to run and is not a contrarian bottom signal; (3) macro headwinds — DXY at 101.81 and 10Y at 4.99% (both 10-23) raise real-carry pressure, while GLD holdings fell 1.44% over 20 sessions, confirming physical-demand erosion. Invalidation is a daily settle above NEXT R1 4042.37, which would mark a failed breakdown. Downside target is NEXT S2 3954.63, extended toward the 52-week low at 3901.
3. Seasonality is neutral-to-negative (mean -1.53% over the next 20 sessions, 6 of 15 years up).