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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Neutral: Range-Bound Within a Tightening 6.41–6.63 Band | 2026-10-25

Neutral on COMEX copper (HG=F, mapped to HGZ26.CMX). The market is trapped between deteriorating positioning and exchange-level inventory draws, with no validated directional trigger. Price settled at 6.5075 [settle 2026-10-23], up 1.71% on the day but down 1% over 5 sessions and 2.81% over 20 sessions, sitting at just 32.6% of its 20-day range (6.3715–6.789) — a lower-half consolidation, not a trend. Managed-money net length collapsed to 47,690 contracts as of 2026-10-20 (Δ -13,368 w/w), the fourth consecutive weekly reduction, yet this de-crowding has not produced a trend breakdown; the 10-23 session reclaimed the RETRO pivot 6.4545. Fundamentals are mixed: COMEX registered stocks fell to 472,600 short tons [2026-10-22, -800 d/d] and SHFE warrants plunged 19.88% to 19,058 MT [2026-10-23], while LME warehouse stocks rose to 273,750 MT [+800 d/d, +22,250 over 20 reports] — a divergence indicating regional tightness, not global scarcity. ICSG reported a 132,000 MT refined surplus for August 2026. With ATR14 at 0.1333 (2.05% of price) and RV20 at 18.1%, realized volatility is elevated relative to the range, favoring short-volatility strategies over directional bets until a confirmed break of the NEXT pivot ladder (S1 6.41 / R1 6.5665). Invalidation requires a daily settle beyond 6.6255 (R2) or below 6.3125 (S2).