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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, No Stabilization Signal | 2026-10-25

We stay SHORT natural gas (NG=F, December 2026 delivery NGZ26.NYM). The 2026-10-23 settlement at 2.64 broke decisively below the prior 20-day low of 2.726, confirming a downside continuation rather than a pause, and the next-session pivot ladder (P 2.684, S1 2.576, S2 2.512) aligns squarely with the bearish momentum. Three factors drive the call: first, relentless price erosion — down 5.58% on the day, 15.28% over five sessions, and 18.14% over twenty sessions, with each of the last five settled bars printing a lower close. Second, the supply-demand backdrop remains constructive for bears: managed money held a net short of 157,409 contracts as of 2026-10-20, widened by 30,928 contracts week-over-week, and the term structure is in deep contango (M1-M2 at -13.44%), signaling ample near-term supply and a negative roll yield for longs. Third, volatility is expanding in the direction of the trend — ATR14 stands at 0.1537, or 5.82% of price, with RV20 at 44.5%, meaning the asset is moving aggressively and stops must respect that width. Invalidation requires a daily settle back above 2.684 (next-session pivot). Seasonality is a genuine counterweight: the next 20 sessions average +8.8% over the past 15 years, up in 11 of 15, but we treat it as context only given the small sample. Below 2.576, the 52-week low at 2.483 becomes the realistic target.