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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) Deep Analysis Report | Increase in Open Interest Breaks Below 20-Day Low, Bearish Outlook | 2026-10-25

Direction: Bearish. The trigger condition for this period is close breaking below the 20-day low of 3051 at 3047, combined with increasing open interest declining, confirming a clear bearish stance. Technically, [10-23 Settlement] 3043, 5-day -0.88%, 20-day -2.4%, price at 15.8% position within the 20-day channel, with the last 5 daily highs moving down sequentially, and the previous weekly close [10-16] also closed down -0.19%. On the fundamental side, social inventory in early October increased by 2.7% month-on-month (+250,000 tons), signaling a seasonal turning point, while September inventory at key steel enterprises decreased by 8.4% month-on-month, indicating a marginal weakening of liquidation momentum. On the capital side, net long positions of the top 20 traders increased by 9,288 contracts compared to the previous day, expanding by 20,586 contracts, forming a divergence with the price decline, but main contract nominal open interest +5.8 billion yuan, open interest +19,031 contracts with -0.55% decline, typical active long-side liquidation. Copper-to-gold ratio at 1.62 at the 100th percentile of 1Y, global growth expectations remain strong but black commodities independently weaken. Direction invalidation condition: Daily close stabilizes above 3077.