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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Trend-Following Exit Unfinished | 2026-10-25

We stay SHORT SI=F (COMEX December silver SIZ26.CMX). The 53.949 settle [2026-10-23] broke below the prior 20-day low of 54.53 (excl. today) and below NEXT pivot S1 53.084's neighborhood, confirming a downtrend that has already lost 16.75% over 20 sessions. Three reasons: (1) price action is decisively negative — five consecutive lower settles from 58 [10-20] to 53.949 [10-23], with ATR14 at 2.076 (3.85% of price) and RV20 at 37.3% showing a high-volatility decline, not a quiet drift; (2) positioning is not yet washed out — managed-money net length fell to 3,505 contracts (netPct 3.07%, 3-year crowding percentile 28.21) from 7,528 two weeks earlier, but the 28th percentile is mid-range rather than a capitulation low, leaving room for further long liquidation; (3) macro headwinds transmit directly — DXY at 101.81 and 10Y at 4.99% [2026-10-23] raise carrying costs and the opportunity cost of a non-yielding metal, while the gold/silver ratio at 74.29 (1Y percentile 90.08%) confirms silver is lagging gold on the way down. Invalidation: a daily settle back above NEXT pivot R1 54.804, which would neutralize the 20-day-low break. No Asia print was available for this issue, so report-date observations are intraday only and close-based analysis uses the 53.949 settle [2026-10-23].