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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Bias | 2026-10-25

Bearish bias below 1251.92 as price stalls near multi-session highs and 5-day momentum deteriorates; invalidation on a daily close above 1261.58. Soybeans have drifted lower over the past five sessions, with the 5-day change at -0.38% and price sitting at 23.9% within the 20-day channel. The 20-day range of 1235.75–1322.5 caps near-term scope, while the NEXT pivot ladder places immediate resistance at 1263.25 and support at 1250.75. A break below the RETRO pivot of 1251.92 would open the path to the 20-day low at 1235.75, whereas sustained hold above 1261.58 would argue for a technical rebound. Fundamentally, the US soybean crush margin sits at 2.4005 USD/bu, near the 1-year percentile of 47.62%, offering no strong fundamental thrust in either direction. Cross-asset ratios show the copper/gold ratio at 1.62 with a 1-year percentile of 100%, indicating gold has lagged base metals over the past year, but this provides only a neutral cross-asset backdrop for soybeans. The weekly bar ended 2026-10-16 at 1261.25, down 2.38% week-on-week, and the current week remains unfinished, so no weekly-close conclusion is drawn. The report-date bar is unfinished intraday as of 09:31 JST; all settle-based references use the 2026-10-23 final settlement at 1256.
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