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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-23 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Bias | 2026-10-25

We stay SHORT ZCZ26.CBT corn. The continuous contract maps to the December 2026 CBOT delivery (ZCZ26.CBT); settlement is 456 [settle 2026-10-23], down 13.68% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 10.14 (2.22% of price) and RV20 at 22.6% confirming a persistent, high-volatility downtrend rather than a stable base. Three factors drive the call: first, price has closed lower in each of the last five settled sessions (467 → 462 → 463.25 → 460.5 → 456) and sits at the bottom of the 20-day range ex-today of 453.5–529, only 2.5 cents above the range low; second, the term structure shows a deep M1–M2 contango of −14.25 (−3.03%) with a roll yield of −12.12%, meaning long positions pay a negative carry while the spot premium erodes — a classic signature of ample physical supply and weak nearby demand; third, seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative on average (mean −1.02%, median −1.17%, up only 6 of 15 years), and the macro backdrop of a firm dollar (DXY 101.81) plus a 10Y yield near 4.99% is a headwind for dollar-priced export demand. Invalidation is a daily settle above the next-session pivot at 457.83; a decisive break below 453.42 (S1) targets 450.83 (S2), roughly 0.5×ATR beyond the trigger. No Asia print was captured for this report date, so intraday levels are not quoted.