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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-23 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Bias on Weak Fundamentals and Positioning | 2026-10-25

Bearish. Wheat prices have broken below the 20-day support pivot and fund positioning remains net-short; invalidation if price reclaims 630 on sustained close. Three reasons: 1) price below 20D pivot and 52-week lower bound, 2) net-short COT crowding near multi-year extremes, 3) contango roll cost eroding long side. Supply-demand fundamentals show rising global inventories vs 5-year average and no near-term weather-driven supply shock. Cross-asset ratios confirm neutral-to-weak macro backdrop.