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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bullish breakout confirmed, backwardation validates tight prompt | 2026-10-26

Bullish on front-month Brent (BZZ26.NYM): the [settle 2026-10-23] 111.7 close broke above the prior 20-day high of 109, confirming the uptrend rather than exhausting it, and the trade stays long unless a daily settle breaks back below the NEXT-ladder S1 of 109.
18. Three pillars support the call. First, price action: Brent settled +2.8% on the day, +4.57% over five sessions and +18.69% over twenty, with ATR14 at 3.55 (3.17% of price) and RV20 at 26.1% — an accelerating, high-conviction trend, not a quiet drift. Second, fundamentals: EIA crude stocks at 412,517 kb (2026-10-16) are -3.3% vs the 5-year same-week average after a 4-week cumulative draw of -13,881 kb, gasoline is -5.0% vs average, distillate -9.0%, and refinery utilization runs at 93.4% — a system drawing hard on inventories. Third, term structure: M1-M2 backwardation of 5.02 (4.49%) with a 53.93% roll yield is the market paying a large premium for prompt barrels, physical tightness made explicit. Bears have only the rig count (460, w/w +1) and an early-Asia pullback to 110.52 (-1.06% vs settle). Invalidation: daily settle below 109.18 (NEXT S1).