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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Below 2.726, Target 2.512 | 2026-10-26

Bearish NG=F (NYMEX December natural gas, NGZ26.NYM); a daily settle below 2.576 invalidates the short and turns the tape neutral-to-bullish for a rebound toward 2.684. The prior session's settle of 2.64 [settle 2026-10-23] broke decisively below the prior 20-day low of 2.726 (ex-today range 2.726–3.334), confirming a downside channel that has now produced five consecutive lower daily closes and a 15.28% weekly decline on the last completed weekly bar. Three forces drive the call: first, price momentum is unambiguous — 1D -5.58%, 5D -15.28%, 20D -18.14%, with ATR14 at 0.1537 (5.82% of price) showing volatility expanding into the move rather than exhausting it. Second, term structure is steeply contango at M1-M2 -0.41 (-13.44%) with a roll yield of -161.31%, meaning long positions face a severe carry penalty and the curve is pricing ample near-term supply rather than scarcity. Third, positioning is not yet washed out — CFTC managed-money net -157,409 as of 2026-10-20 with a crowding percentile of only 43.07, leaving room for further short extension before the trade becomes crowded. The next-session pivot ladder (from the 2026-10-23 H/L/C) places P at 2.684 with S1 at 2.576 and S2 at 2.512; price is already trading below P, so the path of least resistance is toward S1 and then S2. Seasonality offers a modest counterweight (mean +10.4% over the next 20 sessions, up 10 of 15 years), but it is a small sample and does not override a live breakdown. No Asia intraday print was available for this issue, so all levels are referenced from the prior settlement.