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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Broke Below 20-Day Low on Rising Open Interest, Bearish | 2026-10-26

Direction: Bearish. RB2701 [10-23 settlement] 3043, close 3047 broke below the near-20-day low of 3051, triggering a bearish signal. Three reasons: 1) Price fell on rising open interest, with dominant holdings +19,031 lots and top-20 seats net long 9,287 lots, yet the net long daily change of +20,586 failed to prevent the price breakdown; moreover, notional open interest of 556.9 billion yuan rose 5.8 billion yuan on the day, indicating active bearish position additions suppressing the market;
2) Technically, 5-day -0.88%, 20-day -2.4%, price sits at the 15.8% percentile of the 20-day range 3031–3132, near the lower end of the range; next pivot P 3045.67, S1 3032.33;
3) Fundamentally, social inventory in early October was 9.39 million tons, +2.7% month-on-month, with off-season inventory accumulation weakening demand support. Direction failure condition: daily close breaks above 3077 (below the prior 20-day high, the daily report stop-loss level).