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データ基準日: 2026-10-23 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Oversold Bounce Into 626.67 Pivot — Neutral Until 621.83 Holds | 2026-10-26

We are NEUTRAL on CBOT December wheat (ZWZ26.CBT, continuous ZW=F) this week; the call flips bearish only on a daily settle below 621.83 (next-session S1, NEXT ladder) and bullish only on a daily settle above 634.67 (next-session R2). Settle 625 [2026-10-23] is down 5.37% over 5 sessions and 11.13% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 15.29 (2.45% of price) and RV20 at 20.8% — an already-depressed volatility base that limits the premium of selling into weakness. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-19 to 2026-10-23) closed at 625, down 5.37% w/w, after a 666.5 high and a 621 low; the current week has no settled bar yet, so no weekly breakout can be claimed. Cross-asset context is risk-off-adjacent: gold/silver at 74.29 (1Y percentile 90.08%), oil/gold at 0.0258 (1Y percentile 100%), copper/gold at 1.62 (1Y percentile 100%), DXY at 101.81, and the 10Y at 4.99%. With no Asia print captured for this issue, report-date levels are intraday only and the prior settlement is the analysis base. Strategy: fade extremes within the 621.83–634.67 band, invalidation on a daily settle beyond either bound.