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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-23 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Oversold Bounce Into Contango Ceiling | 2026-10-26

We stay SHORT corn (ZCZ26.CBT) on a daily settle basis; the bearish call is invalidated only by a daily settle above 464.83 (NEXT R2, 2026-10-23 ladder), which would mark a reclaim of the pivot ceiling and a failed breakdown. The December 2026 contract settled 456 [settle 2026-10-23], down 13.68% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 10.14 (2.22% of price) and RV20 at 22.6% — an elevated-volatility downtrend, not a quiet drift. Three reasons support the short: (1) price structure is squarely bearish — the contract has settled lower five consecutive sessions, from 467 [settle 10-19] to 456 [settle 10-23], closing the last completed week down 3.85% w/w at 456 and sitting at 3.3% from the 20-day low of 453.5; (2) the term structure is deeply negative — M1-M2 contango of -14.25 (-3.03%) with a roll yield of -12.12% means longs pay a steep carry penalty, structurally penalizing any attempted bottom-fishing; (3) seasonality is unsupportive — the next 20 sessions average -1% (median -1.39%, up only 5 of 15 years). Risk metrics confirm the trend's severity: DD20d 12.81%, Sharpe30 -3.54, VaR95 -1.97%. With no Asia print available for the report date, all close-based analysis uses the 2026-10-23 settlement. The trade plan is a break-below 453.42 (NEXT S1) targeting 450.83 (NEXT S2), roughly 0.5 ATR beyond the trigger.