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データ基準日: 2026-10-26 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bullish — SHFE Warrant Drain vs LME Build, 99th-Pct Copper/Gold | 2026-10-27

Bullish COMEX copper (HGZ26.CMX) into the 2026-10-28 FOMC and the 2026-10-30 China PMI prints; invalidation on a daily settle below 6.4857 (next-session S1). The setup rests on three pillars. First, positioning has been flushed: CFTC managed-money net length fell to 47,690 contracts as of 2026-10-20 from 78,058 on 2026-09-29 — a 30,368-contract reduction — while the crowding percentile dropped to 45.72 from 68.51, leaving room for fresh longs without an overcrowded trade. Second, the physical signal is bifurcated in a constructive way: SHFE warrants collapsed to 16,219 MT as of 2026-10-26 with a 20-report change of -10,436 MT, while LME stocks rose to 273,750 MT (+22,250 over 20 reports) and COMEX registered fell to 472,600 short tons (-4, and the 14.9% single-day SHFE warrant decline on 2026-10-26 is the sharpest in the injected series. Third, the copper/gold ratio sits at 1.62, at its 1-year percentile high of 100% (3-year 64.15%), a pro-growth configuration that has accompanied copper outperformance. Technically, price settled 6.542 [2026-10-26], above the 20-day range midpoint (position 40.8% of the 6.3715-6.789 ex-today channel) after rebounding from the 6.3715 low; ATR14 is 0.1348 (2.06% of price) with RV20 at 18%. A break above 6.5807 (next-session R1) targets 6.6193 (R2), roughly 0.28 ATR beyond the trigger. Risks: the FOMC on 10-28 and China Manufacturing PMI on 10-30 (forecast 49.9 vs prior 50.1 — a sub-50 print would hit HG directly).