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データ基準日: 2026-10-26 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, No Stabilization Signal | 2026-10-27

We stay SHORT natural gas (NG=F, continuous mapping to NGZ26.NYM). The 10-26 settle of 2.602 broke below the prior 20-day low of 2.62, confirming the downtrend that has taken prices down 14.91% over five sessions and 16.23% over twenty. ATR14 of 0.1594 (6.13% of price) shows volatility expanding into the break rather than contracting, and the NEXT pivot ladder places resistance at R1 2.6677 and support at S1 2.5167 — the path of least resistance remains lower. Fundamentals offer no offset: managed-money net positioning is -157,409 contracts as of 10-20, the most short in four weeks, and the CTA trend proxy sits at its maximum +2 reading, meaning systematic shorts are aligned with the move. The term structure is in deep contango (M1-M2 at -13.44%, roll yield -161.31%), a structural headwind for longs that reflects ample near-term supply rather than scarcity. Seasonality is supportive on a 15-year average basis (+11.01% mean) but the sample is small and the worst year (-18.28%) shows the downside tail. Invalidation is a daily settle above NEXT R1 2.6677; below that, the 52-week low at 2.483 is the next reference. No Asia print was available for this issue.