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データ基準日: 2026-10-26 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

SHFE Gold 2612 Deep Report | Bearish: Accelerated Deleveraging Before FOMC, Below 856.29 Target 849 | 2026-10-27

SHFE Gold 2612 bearish outlook. Core logic: deleveraging incomplete: 20-day decline of 9.33% and price at the 6.6% percentile of the 20-day range; COMEX managed money net long decreasing for four consecutive weeks; COT crowding at 3-year high of 89.17; GLD holdings down 1.44% over 20 days combined with Russia Central Bank reducing holdings by 66 tons; weak spot buying interest; Fed meeting imminent, strong dollar and real rates suppressing valuation. Technically, settled 861.88 has broken below pivot P 867.81; next pivot P downshift to 862.57; bearish structure established. Direction invalidation: daily close above 868.87 (next R1), or FOMC releasing unexpectedly dovish signals. Top 20 net long 149,643 hands but daily reduction of 2,797 hands; decline on unwinding not short covering; support at 856.29, break below target 849 (approx 1 ATR).