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データ基準日: 2026-10-26 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish Outlook as 117960 Approaches Lower Band | 2026-10-27

Bearish. The night session of SHFE nickel closed at 117960, down 1.13% from settlement, closing below the 20-day range (114610-126890) and approaching the lower band at the 30th percentile. Three core reasons: 1) Technical weakness, closing below the 20-day range and approaching the lower band at 114610, with downside momentum in favor;
2) Front 20-position net short data shows 16621 contracts, expanded by 2026 from the previous day, indicating a significant increase in short-side active positioning;
3) Main position nominal open interest increased by 6.49 billion, with main funds shifting towards shorts, further solidifying the cost basis of short positions. Directional invalidation condition: If the night session closes above and stabilizes at 120716, short positions will face covering pressure, requiring a shift to observation.