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データ基準日: 2026-10-26 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish: Increased Positioning and Falling Coupled with Inventory Accumulation | 2026-10-27

Direction: Bearish. Core logic: First, RB2701 settled at [10-26 Settlement] at 3041, down 0.2% from the previous settlement, and further weakened to 3023 in the night session, exhibiting a pattern of increased position and falling prices (active shorting), with main nominal open interest changing by +1.95 billion; Second, the top 20 seats net short position was 8,062 contracts, expanded by 17,349 contracts from the previous day, indicating dominant short positions and strengthening momentum; Third, marginal weakening in fundamentals, according to the China Iron and Steel Association's weekly report, social inventory in early October was 939 million tons, up 2.7% month-on-month, shifting from destocking to accumulation, while September late-stage key steel enterprise inventories declined, but supply pressure shifted to the social sector. Technical: Price is at the 6% percentile of the 20-day range 3031–3131 (near the lower band), ATR14 is 26.79, RV20 is 8.1%. Failure condition: Daily close breaking the next pivot R1 level at 3049.