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データ基準日: 2026-10-26 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — Trend Breakdown, Weak Flows, Rich Ratio | 2026-10-27

We stay SHORT SI=F (SIZ26.CMX). The settle [2026-10-26] at 54.341 is down 11.95% over 20 sessions and sits near the bottom of the 20-day channel; the last completed weekly bar closed -5.86% w/w at 53.949. Managed-money net length has fallen for four straight weeks while open interest rose, and the gold/silver ratio at 74.32 sits in the 90th 1-year percentile, confirming silver underperformance. Invalidation is a daily settle above NEXT R1 54.867; a daily settle below NEXT S1 53.422 targets 52.504 (S2). Fundamentals are neutral-to-negative: COMEX registered stocks rose 4.23 Moz over 20 reports while SHFE warrants fell 36,046 kg, and SLV holdings added only 0.46% in 20 sessions — no investor rescue. Volatility is elevated (ATR14 2.062, 3.79% of price) with IV at 42.22 vs RV20 34.6%, so optionality is expensive. Seasonality is negative (mean -2.37%, median -4.31% over the next 20 sessions). The FOMC on 10-28/29 is the key event risk; a hawkish surprise would reinforce the short. Bias: bearish, momentum and flows aligned downward.