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データ基準日: 2026-10-26 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 13% 20-Day Slide, Contango Confirms Burden | 2026-10-27

Bearish ZC=F (December 2026 CBOT corn). Settle 455 [2026-10-26] is down 13% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 9.63 (2.12% of price) and RV20 at 22.7% confirming a persistent, orderly downtrend rather than a panic. Three factors drive the call: (1) price has settled beneath the prior 20-day range floor of 453.5 for two consecutive sessions, and the next-session pivot ladder (P 453.75, S1 451.5, S2 448) is stacked overhead as resistance; (2) the M1-M2 spread is in contango at -14.25 (-3.03%), a carry structure consistent with ample nearby supply and a roll cost for longs; (3) seasonality is unfavorable, with a 15-year mean of -1.72% and only 4 of 15 years higher over the next 20 sessions. Invalidation requires a daily settle above 457.25 (next-session R1), which would neutralize the pivot-overhead configuration; a settle below 448 (S2) would extend the decline toward the 52-week low at 398.
5. The 52-week range is 398.5-544.5, and the 20-day channel (ex-today) spans 453.5-529. DXY at 102.01 and 10Y at 4.99% add a firm-dollar headwind. No Asia print was available for this issue, so intraday observations are limited to the 10-26 settle and the report-date unfinished bar.