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データ基準日: 2026-10-26 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bullish — Backwardation Confirms Tightness, Hold Long Above 109.26 | 2026-10-28

Bullish on front-month Brent (BZF27.NYM); the call is invalidated on a daily settle below 109.26 (next-session S1). Three pillars support the long. First, the term structure is emphatically tight: M1–M2 backwardation of 5.07 (4.58%) with a 54.94% roll yield rewards physical ownership and penalizes shorts. Second, US petroleum inventories are draining against their 5-year seasonal norms — crude at 412,517 kb is 3.3% below the same-week average after four consecutive weekly draws totaling 13,881 kb, and distillate is 9.0% below average with refinery utilization at 93.4%. Third, price structure is constructive: settle 110.74 [2026-10-26] is up 17.31% over 20 days and sits at position 91.5% of the 92.73–112.41 range, with the last completed weekly bar closing +4.57% at 111.
7. The main risk is event risk, not supply: FOMC, Advance GDP and Core PCE all land this week, OVX at 55.44 (1Y percentile 57%) shows options are paying up, and the Asia intraday pullback to 109.44 (-1.17%) warns of pre-event de-grossing. ATR14 of 3.51 (3.17% of price) means a single session can sweep 3.51 points; we treat 109.26 as the line that invalidates, not 109.44. Seasonality is a mild headwind (mean -2.9% over the next 20 sessions) but is subordinate to the inventory and backwardation signals.