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データ基準日: 2026-10-27 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) Deep Analysis | Position Building Breaks 20-Day Low, Bearish Outlook | 2026-10-28

Direction: Bearish. I2701 [10-27] closed at 664, breaking below the 20-day low of 664.5, triggering this report. Three core reasons: First, trend and momentum deterioration, with a 20-day decline of 7.13%, price at the 6.8% quantile of the 20-day range 660–718.5, approaching the lower bound; Second, main position building of 13,115 contracts alongside a 0.9% decline, with nominal open interest increasing by 8.71 billion yuan, reflecting a weak structure of active long-building; Third, net short positions in the top 20 seats stood at 24,770 contracts, although narrowed by 8,536 from the previous day, the net short structure remains unchanged. Direction invalidation condition: Daily close breaks above the next pivot R1 at 671.67. Risk points: Night session temporarily reported at 663.5, with narrowing net shorts indicating profit-taking by short positions; International and China market premium +7.27% at high levels, with the Chinese market relatively resilient. If it breaks below S1 at 658.17, short targets look towards the 20-day range lower bound around 660.