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データ基準日: 2026-10-27 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | SHORT into FOMC — momentum breakdown, IV rich, ratio extreme | 2026-10-28

We stay SHORT SI=F (COMEX December silver SIZ26.CMX). The prior session's settle of 54.513 [settle 2026-10-27] is down 6.01% over 5 days and 10.86% over 20 days, with price pinned in the bottom 18.5% of its 20-day range (53.03–62.455, ex-today); the 10-27 bar sliced through the RETRO pivot (53.949) and S1 (53.422) intraday before recovering, leaving the trend structure broken. Three reasons: (1) positioning is being flushed but is not yet washed out — managed-money net length fell to 3,505 contracts (netPct 3.07%, 3-year crowding percentile 28.21) from 7,528 two weeks earlier,992, meaning fresh short interest is building alongside the liquidation; (2) implied vol at 42.45 vs RV20 of 34.8% (IV−RV +7.7 vol pts, IV/RV 1.22) makes long optionality expensive into a binary FOMC event, favoring delta-short or short-vol expression over longs; (3) the gold/silver ratio at 74.75 sits at the 91.27% 1-year percentile, confirming silver is lagging gold on the bounce — gold held 3,990 while silver fell 2% intraday on 10-27. Invalidation is a daily settle above NEXT R1 55.199; a daily settle below NEXT S1 53.269 targets S2 52.024. COMEX registered stocks at 99.79 Moz [2026-10-23] and SLV holdings of 498.33 Moz are ample; SHFE warrants fell to 1,368,625 kg [2026-10-27].