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データ基準日: 2026-10-27 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish breakdown below 20-day low, target 444.25 | 2026-10-28

We are bearish CBOT December 2026 corn (ZCZ26.CBT, continuous ZC=F) and stay short unless price reclaims the next-session pivot at 450.75 on a daily settlement basis. The 10-27 settlement of 448.75 broke decisively below the prior 20-day low of 450.25 (ex-today range 450.25–526.
5), confirming a downside channel that has now produced five consecutive lower daily settlements and a 20-day decline of 14.03%. Momentum, term structure, and seasonality all align on the short side: ATR14 stands at 9.43 (2.1% of price) with RV20 at 22.7%, and the next 20 sessions carry a 15-year mean seasonal return of −1.58% (median −1.97%, up in only 4 of 15 years). The M1–M2 spread of −13.75 cents (−2.93%) reflects a deeply discounted deferred structure consistent with ample supply and a negative roll yield of −11.73% for longs. Macro headwinds add to the burden: the dollar index at 102.37 (+0.4% on 10-27) and 10-year yields at 4.993 raise carry costs for commodity longs. With no Asia intraday print captured for this issue, we anchor exclusively on the 10-27 settlement and the NEXT pivot ladder (P 450.75, S1 446.5, S2 444.25). A break below 446.5 targets 444.25; risk sits above 450.75.