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データ基準日: 2026-10-27 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-Day Low Break, Target 604.08 | 2026-10-28

Bearish ZW=F (CBOT December wheat, ZWZ26.CBT): settle 610.25 [2026-10-27] broke the prior 20-day low of 612.5, confirming the downtrend. Invalidation is a daily settle above 621.58 (NEXT R2); a daily settle below 604.08 (NEXT S2) targets 598–595, roughly one ATR (14.29) lower. Momentum is deeply negative: 1D -0.93%, 5D -5.13%, 20D -11.91%, with ATR14 at 14.29 (2.34% of price) and RV20 at 19.9%. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-19–10-23) closed at 625, down -5.37% w/w, and the current unfinished week trades at 610.25 (-2.36%). Fundamentals lean bearish: term structure shows M1-M2 contango at -13.75 (-2.18%) with a roll yield of -8.73%, indicating ample nearby supply and a carry cost for longs. Macro headwinds include a firm DXY at 102.36 and 10Y yields at 4.99%, which pressure dollar-priced grains. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -2.45%, median -3.37%, up only 4 of 15 years). No Asia intraday print was available for this issue, so all levels reference the prior settlement. The FOMC decision on 2026-10-28 (ET) is the key near-term event risk; a dovish surprise could weaken the dollar and spark a short-covering bounce toward 615.92 (NEXT R1), but the trend remains down unless 621.58 is breached on a daily settle basis.