본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-10-27 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | LONG — tight concentrates, depleted SHFE warrants vs rich copper/gold | 2026-10-28

We stay LONG COMEX copper (HGZ26.CMX); invalidation is a daily settle below the next-session S1 at 6.5727, which would mark the 10-27 breakout as a false move. The call rests on three legs. First, supply: SMM flags simultaneous tightness in copper concentrate and scrap slowing refined output growth, Freeport cut its 2026 sales guidance to 30bn lb from 31bn lb, and SHFE warrants collapsed to 14,593 MT (-10.03% d/d, -7,715 MT over 20 reports) — a physically tight Chinese market even as LME stocks rise. Second, technicals: the 10-27 settle of 6.6525 (+1.69% 1D) reclaimed the RETRO pivot 6.5243 and the 20-day midpoint (position 67.3% of the 6.3715–6.789 channel), with the next-session ladder (P 6.6208, R1 6.7007, S1 6.5727) skewed upward. Third, positioning is not crowded: managed-money net long 47,690 contracts (10-20) is at a 45.72 3-year crowding percentile — a far cry from the 68.51 percentile on 09-29 — leaving room for re-leveraging. Risks: DXY at 102.36 and 10Y at 4.99% are firm, FOMC on 10-28/29 and China PMI on 10-31 are live events, and seasonality is negative (mean -0.45%, 5 of 15 up). Contango of -0.41% M1-M2 is a small roll cost, not a cap. Trade: long on strength through 6.6605 (Asia high), targeting 6.7488 (R2); invalidation below a 6.5727 settle.