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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-27 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

SHFE Butadiene Rubber Main Continuous (SHFE.BR) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish | Short-Squeeze-Style Short Covering | 2026-10-28

BR2612 bullish. Core driver is short covering: the 10-27 session close of 16660 is +1.83% vs settlement, main open interest -2909 lots, top-20 seats' net short 3640 lots narrowed 543 lots intraday, and the volume-price relationship is confirmed as a rally on reduced positions. Technically, 5-day +6.22%, 20-day +13.29%, 20-day channel position 93.1%, RV20 29.3% and ATR14 3.57% show significantly expanded volatility; the trend is upward but already at the upper band of the range. Next pivot P 16506.67, price is above it, R1 16863.33 is the upside target. Invalidation condition: a daily close below 16303.33 (next S1). On the macro side, the FOMC (10-29 02:00) along with Advance GDP and Core PCE will transmit via the USD; VIX 17.52 has not yet priced a recession, and if the oil-to-gold ratio's 1Y percentile of 98.81% falls back, it would be bearish for the cost side of chemicals.