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データ基準日: 2026-10-28 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bullish — Backwardation and Distillate Draw Outweigh Soft Demand | 2026-10-29

We stay long WTI (CL=F, December 2026 delivery CLZ26.NYM) with an invalidation reference at the next-session S1 of 99.94. The market is offering a rare combination: a 1.84 USD/bbl M1–M2 backwardation (roll yield +22.52%) signaling genuine physical tightness, a distillate stockpile 9.4% below the 5-year average, and crude inventories drawing down for four consecutive weeks (-16,695 kb cumulative). Price action confirms the fundamental case — the settle at 101.94 [2026-10-28] is up 4.93% over 5 sessions and 12.74% over 20 sessions, with ATR14 at 4.31 (4.23% of price) indicating elevated but tradeable volatility. The bullish thesis is tempered by gasoline stocks building (+3,870 kb w/w) and a 3:2:1 crack spread at 54.81 USD/bbl (59% 1-year percentile), suggesting refiners are not yet squeezed. Positioning is clean: managed-money net length at only a 11.62 3-year crowding percentile leaves ample room for trend-followers (CTA at +0.98) to add. The primary risk is the oil/gold ratio at a 99.6% 1-year percentile, marking WTI expensive relative to gold, and a 20-day range position at 63.8% that limits the near-term surprise factor. We would turn bearish on a daily settle below 99.94 (next-session S1).