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データ基準日: 2026-10-28 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis | Bearish: Anemic Rebound on Position Reduction, Widening Net Short Caps Upside | 2026-10-29

Iron ore (DCE.I, active contract I2701) maintains a bearish direction. Core logic is threefold: first, price sits at the lower band of the 20-day channel (660–718.5, position 20.5%), with a 20-day decline of -5.08%, and the trend remains bearish; second, net short positions among the top 20 seats widened to 35,616 lots (up 10,846 lots day-on-day) — the rally on a 10,831-lot position reduction by the dominant force is short covering, not active long entry; third, steel social inventories rose +2.7% month-on-month in early October, with destocking sluggish in peak season, while on the supply side the international market premium narrowed to only +6.91. Direction-invalidation condition: if the daily close breaks above 677 (next pivot R1) and holds, the bearish structure is damaged — turn neutral and stand aside. Downside support to watch is 663.5 (next pivot S1); a break below targets 660 (20-day low).