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データ基準日: 2026-10-28 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

DCE.RR(RR2612) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish, Increasing Open Interest Downtrend Continues | 2026-10-29

The main contract RR2612 for Japonica rice is bearish. The core logic is that after the price broke below the lower bound of the 20-day range and continued to decline with increasing open interest, the main position increased by 1,574 hands to 20,489 hands. Price and open interest moving in the same direction indicates that long-side active adding to positions is being fully suppressed by short-side, a typical pattern of increasing open interest and decreasing prices. The settlement price of 3,482 was down 3.46% from 20 days ago. ATR14 is 23.79 points, volatility remains at normal levels, and no panic sell-off has occurred. Fundamentals lack effective support; supply-demand balance data does not show abnormal inventory or warehouse receipts. Price is primarily driven by the financial side. The condition for logic failure is a daily close above 3,491.33 points, i.e., above the next pivot R1; a break would invalidate the current increasing open interest downtrend, requiring a reassessment of the trend. The current price is at 9.8% of the 20-day range, near the range bottom, but no reversal signals have appeared in the trend, maintaining the bearish stance.