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データ基準日: 2026-10-28 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Neutral — 4,026–4,087 Range, Crowded Longs Cap Upside | 2026-10-29

Gold (COMEX December gold GCZ26.CMX, continuous GC=F) is NEUTRAL over a 1–5 day horizon; the call flips to bearish only on a daily settle below the next-session S1 at 4,026.6, and to bullish only on a daily settle above R1 at 4,086.
9. The market is stabilizing after a 4.14% weekly loss, with the prior settle at 4,051.6 [settle 2026-10-28], down 0.56% on the day and 3.23% over 20 sessions, while early Asian trade on 2026-10-29 holds a modest 0.31% gain. Three factors drive the neutral stance. First, price sits at just 23.2% of its 20-day range (3,989.1–4,259.0), a deeply weakened but not broken structure; the 3,989.1 low has held twice. Second, positioning is a headwind: CFTC managed-money net length of 104,206 contracts as of 2026-10-20 still ranks in the 89.17% three-year crowding percentile, leaving room for further liquidation despite four consecutive weekly declines. Third, macro resistance is firm: 10-year Treasury yields at 5.05% and a 5.05% reading in the cross-asset snapshot keep opportunity cost elevated, while the gold/silver ratio at 75.5 (92.06% 1-year percentile) confirms gold holding relative strength with silver lagging. Fundamentals are mixed: COMEX registered stocks fell 0.28 Moz over 20 reports while GLD holdings shed 1.62%, but Asian dip-buying and a UBS-cited floor near 4,000 offset that. Today's Advance GDP and Core PCE prints are the near-term catalyst.