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データ基準日: 2026-10-28 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | SHORT — Oversold Bounce Into 2.874–2.931 Resistance | 2026-10-29

We stay SHORT NG=F (NYMEX December natural gas, NGZ26). The 2026-10-28 settle at 2.817 [settle 10-28] is a 4.45% one-day rebound inside a downtrend that has taken 20D to -6.91% and the last completed weekly bar to -15.28% w/w (close 2.64). The bounce is a technical correction, not a reversal: the contract settled below the 20-day range midpoint (2.497–3.334, position 38.2%), the term structure is in deep contango (M1–M2 -10.22%, roll yield -122.64%), and managed-money net length remains negative at -9.2% of OI with no capitulation. The next-session pivot ladder (from the 10-28 H/L/C) puts resistance at 2.874 (R1) and 2.931 (R2) with support at 2.732 (S1) and 2.647 (S2); a daily settle above 2.931 invalidates the short and targets the 3–3.1 area. Until then, rallies toward 2.874–2.931 are saleable with ATR14 at 0.1599 (5.68% of price) setting the risk frame. Fundamentals offer no rescue: the seasonality window is mixed (mean +7.5%, up 8 of 15 years, worst -16.65% in 2023), and the cross-asset backdrop shows DXY at 102.13 and 10Y yields at 5.05% — a hawkish mix for an energy commodity. Macro risk this week is the 10-29 US advance GDP and Core PCE prints; a soft surprise could fuel another short-covering squeeze toward 2.931, which is where size should be defended rather than chased at current levels.