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データ基準日: 2026-10-28 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Position Reduction and Weak Rebound, Net Short Widens | 2026-10-29

Direction: Bearish. Core logic: First, the trend is weak; the RB2701 settlement price is 3041 yuan, down 2.28% over 20 days, sitting at the 26.1% percentile of the 20-day range of 3012-3131, with the rebound suppressed by the upper band of the range. Second, the position structure is bearish: net short among the top 20 seats is 8430 lots and widened by 9374 lots in a single day; the main force reducing positions by 10153 lots reflects short covering rather than active long entry, indicating insufficient upside momentum. Third, fundamentals are under pressure: social inventory in early October was 9.39 million tons, up 2.7% month-on-month, and the manufacturing PMI for October 31 is expected at 49.9, falling below the boom-or-bust line, indicating weak demand. Direction failure conditions: the daily close breaks above 3053.67 yuan (the next pivot R1) and holds, or the top 20 seats' net short narrows significantly and turns net long.