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データ基準日: 2026-10-28 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | SHORT — Trend Breakdown, Weak ETF Demand, Rich IV | 2026-10-29

We stay SHORT SI=F (SIZ26.CMX); the 2026-10-28 settle of 53.666 broke the 53.949 weekly close, and the trade is invalidated only on a daily settle above NEXT R2 at 55.252. Three reasons: (1) trend and momentum have rolled over — 5D -7.01% and 20D -11.39% [settle 10-28], with price in the bottom 9.8% of the 20-day range 52.71–62.455 and RV20 at 34.9%; (2) physical and ETF demand are not supporting the tape — COMEX registered stocks rose to 99.8 Moz [2026-10-26] with a +0.6 Moz 20-report change, SHFE warrants fell to 1,364,883 kg [2026-10-28] on a -72,766 kg 20-report draw, and SLV holdings gained just +0.46% over 20 sessions to 498.33 Moz [2026-10-23], too small to absorb a -11.39% 20-day price slide; (3) positioning is not crowded short — managed-money netPct is 3.07% with a 3-year crowding percentile of 28.21 [COT 10-20], leaving room for further liquidation, while VXSLV at 42.64 versus RV20 34.9% (IV/RV 1.22) makes optionality expensive and favors selling premium or shorting over paying up. The gold/silver ratio at 75.5 [2026-10-28] sits at a 92.06% 1-year percentile, confirming silver underperformance. Risk events are concentrated on 10-29: Advance GDP, GDP Price Index and Core PCE all print at 08:30 ET and feed directly into GC, SI and DXY. A soft-landing surprise that lifts the copper/gold ratio (1.65, 1Y percentile 100%) would be the main upside risk to the short.