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データ基準日: 2026-10-28 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish breakdown below 20-day low, contango confirms carry | 2026-10-29

Bearish ZW=F (December 2026 CBOT wheat, ZWZ26.CBT) while the 10-28 settle of 599 holds; invalidation is a daily settle back above the NEXT pivot R1 at 611.42. The 10-28 settle broke the prior 20-day low of 609.75 (ex-today range 609.75–706.
5) after a -1.84% day, -4.66% five-day and -11.36% twenty-day slide, with ATR14 at 15.13 (2.53% of price) and RV20 at 19.2% showing a high-volatility downtrend, not a quiet drift. The term structure is in contango (M1–M2 -12.75, -2.05%, roll yield -8.19%), meaning the front month carries a negative roll and there is no premium bid for immediate supply — consistent with ample rather than scarce availability. Seasonality is a headwind: the next 20 sessions average -3.06% (median -3.3%, up only 4 of 15 years). Macro cross-asset context is risk-off but not wheat-supportive: DXY at 102.13 and 10Y at 5.05% [2026-10-28] are a strong-dollar, high-rate combination that pressures dollar-denominated commodities, while the gold/silver ratio at 75.5 (1Y pctile 92.06%) and oil/gold at 0.0252 (1Y pctile 99.6%) confirm defensive leadership rather than growth or demand-led inflation. With the 20-day channel now 593.25–706.5 and the settle just 5.75 points off the intraday low, downside momentum is intact; only a reclaim of 611.42 would neutralize the breakdown.