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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-28 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish breakdown below 20-day low, 1213.33 next | 2026-10-29

Bearish ZS=F (January 2027 CBOT soybean futures, ZSF27.CBT) — the 2026-10-28 settle of 1224.5 broke below the prior 20-day low at 1227.5, confirming a five-week downtrend; invalidation is a daily settle back above the NEXT pivot at 1228.33. Momentum is uniformly negative: 1D -0.39%, 5D -1.67%, 20D -5.3% [all settle 2026-10-28], with price in the bottom 2% of its 20-day range (1222.75-1309) and RV20 at 10.6% against an ATR14 of 17.98 (~1.47% of price). Fundamentals offer no offset: the US crush margin of 2.4068 USD/bu [2026-10-27] sits at only its 47.22% 1-year percentile and has slipped from 2.4401 twenty sessions earlier, so demand-side processing economics are neutral-to-soft rather than supportive. The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -1.11%, roll yield -6.64%), a carry burden for longs. Macro headwinds are modest but real: DXY at 102.13 and 10Y yields at 5.05% [2026-10-28] pressure dollar-priced commodities, while China's Manufacturing PMI (forecast 49.9 vs prior 50.1, due 2026-10-31) is the key demand-side surprise risk for ZS. Seasonality is mildly constructive (+1.68% mean over the next 20 sessions, up 11 of 15 years) but is a small sample and does not override the breakdown. A daily close below S1 at 1218.92 targets S2 at 1213.33.