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データ基準日: 2026-10-28 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bullish — tight cash, 20D +17.4%, hold above 109.8 | 2026-10-30

We stay LONG Brent (BZ=F, front-month BZF27.NYM) with invalidation on a daily settle below 109.8 (next-session S1). Brent settled 111.64 [settle 2026-10-28], +2.04% on the day, +6.25% over five sessions and +17.4% over twenty, with the 20-day channel at 93.82–112.63 and price at the 94.7% percentile of that range. Three pillars support the call. First, the cash market is genuinely tight: EIA crude stocks fell 1,892 kb w/w to 410,625 kb (2026-10-23), a four-week draw of 16,695 kb, leaving inventories 3.8% below the five-year same-week average, while the M1–M2 backwardation of 3.68 (3.3%) and 39.56% roll yield confirm prompt scarcity. Second, distillate at 102,824 kb is 9.4% below its five-year average and refinery utilization is 92.8%, so product tightness, not speculative length, is doing the work; the 3:2:1 crack at 52.62 USD/bbl [2026-10-29] validates strong refining economics. Third, momentum is intact without a blow-off: RV20 is 27.2% against OVX at 57.16 (1Y percentile 61%), so options are pricing event risk but spot has not become unhinged. The bearish caveats are gasoline stocks, up 3,870 kb w/w and only 2.1% below the five-year average, and a 15-year seasonal mean of -3.24% over the next 20 sessions. We treat both as secondary. A daily settle below 109.8 (NEXT S1) would break the sequence of higher lows and flip the view to neutral; above 113.05 (NEXT R1) the 52-week high at 112.63 is already within reach.