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データ基準日: 2026-10-29 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bullish — Backwardation and Distillate Draw Outweigh Soft Gasoline | 2026-10-30

Bullish WTI (CL=F front-month, mapped to CLZ26.NYM); invalidation is a daily settle below 100.77 (next-session S1). The market is tightening on the margin: EIA crude stocks fell 1,892 kb in the week to 2026-10-23, with a 4-week cumulative draw of 16,695 kb leaving inventories 3.8% below the 5-year same-week average, while distillate stocks are 9.4% below that average after a 1,462 kb draw. Refinery utilization at 92.8% and a 1.79 USD/bbl M1–M2 backwardation (roll yield +21.27%) confirm prompt physical tightness rather than a paper-driven rally. Price structure agrees: WTI settled 102.86 [settle 2026-10-29], +3.41% over 5 sessions and +10.76% over 20 sessions, holding in the upper half of the 86.86–110.48 20-day range (67.7% position). The 3:2:1 crack at 53.49 USD/bbl (1Y percentile 54.37%) is mid-range, so refiners are not being squeezed to the point of demand destruction. The main caution flags are managed-money net length falling for a fourth consecutive week (36,187 contracts as of 2026-10-20, crowd percentile 11.62 — an extremely low 3-year rank) and a gasoline build of +3,870 kb that warns demand is not uniformly strong. We treat the flat price up-trend (CTA trend proxy at 98) and the inventory deficit as the dominant pair. A daily settle below 100.77 would negate the call and target 98.67 (next-session S2).